If you’re aware of the news lately (and I’d be shocked if you weren’t) markets have turned bearish and commodity prices have risen sharply, basically turning the dynamics upside down compared to where they were in 2025. It’s a trend driven by the military action in the Middle East, whose long-term impacts and ultimate conclusion are greatly in doubt at this time. Hence, it’s unclear when things will turn around and stock markets will once again become bullish (meaning that stock values will once again continue rising) and gasoline prices will come down. Welcome to the world folks. The little people (which is just about all of us) never know when the great powers will make moves that turn the world upside down. We also never know (for sure at least) when things will go right-side up. So welcome to the proverbial rainy day. This being a time when prudence reigns over risk taking and when the people who eschewed the proverbial financial umbrellas (those are for losers, right?) are drenched in fear for their financial future. The thing is that everyone needs a financial umbrella because as many people are learning now, and I’ve learned over decades of saving and investing, that the rainy day ALWAYS comes eventually.
Now if you look at media coverage of financial topics in this time you’ll find lots of opinions, as always, of what investors should do next. Most of that coverage promotes a changing strategy to meet changing times. As far as I’m concerned such advice only makes sense if you’re one of the (far too many) people who think that prudence in terms of investing is for losers and wimps. What I will be doing, as I’ve always done, is to stay the course and continue to buy low cost index mutual funds at regular intervals, thereby taking advantage of good old Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) which, over time, will more than offset any temporary paper “losses” for the mutual fund shares that have reduced in value. For 25 years I’ve purchased in down markets and I’ve purchased in up markets, only selling shares when money was needed and I couldn’t cash flow a cost out of my salary or other cash savings. A great example of this was cashing in mutual fund shares when I needed a down payment for a primary residence. Another example was when an older vehicle of mine ceased to be reliable and I decided to buy a new car for cash. These examples are the exception rather than the rule though. Most mutual fund shares that I have purchased years ago I still hold, and market downturns like the current one have only deigned to chip away a small amount of my returns on those shares. Even then, that’s just on paper. In real terms the only loss taken when the value of a share falls is if a person panics or is otherwise forced to sell that share at a loss. Sometimes that is truly necessary but usually only if a person has failed to consider a financial umbrella in the event of a rainy day. More about that follows.
Continue reading “The Rainy Day Always Comes”
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